Effects of a new EU Tobacco Taxation Directive on tax revenues, tobacco prevalence and public health in Bulgaria

The study used the excise simulator TETSiM to project the effects – in terms of public revenues, smoking prevalence and averted tobacco-related premature deaths – of the draft provisions of the revised version of Council Directive 2011/64/EU on the structure and rates of excise duty applied to manufactured tobacco. Our estimations indicate that the Bulgarian government has significant potential to increase its revenues from cigarette and heated tobacco product (HTP) taxation by introducing the provisions of the draft Tobacco Tax Directive, thereby contributing directly to improved public health and tobacco control. One of the recommended scenarios indicates expected increases of EUR 694m in tobacco excise and VAT receipts over three years, along with more than 37,000 lives saved.