Patterns of nicotine use in Poland and potential policy responses

This report analyses patterns of nicotine product consumption in Poland and the potential effects of regulatory interventions. The survey (June 2025, over 4,500 respondents aged 18-64) shows that traditional cigarettes remain the dominant product, although their popularity and frequency of use are lower in younger age groups. While most traditional cigarette users do not combine them with other products, consumers of alternative products typically use more than one nicotine product. Perceived harmfulness is low, especially for alternative products: only 38% of daily e-cigarette users consider them very harmful, and this figure is just 30% among users of heated tobacco products (HTPs). Demand is price sensitive, with multiproduct users responding more strongly, though they are less likely to quit nicotine altogether. Price increases for e-cigarettes introduced in 2025 may reduce the number of primary e-cigarette users by 659,000 (62%), of whom 178,000 would likely quit nicotine altogether. To substantially reduce the number of nicotine consumers, price increases for traditional cigarettes are also necessary.

Keywords: Nicotine consumption, Excise tax

JEL classification: D12, I18

Countries covered: Poland

The study was first published as IBS Research Report 01/2025.

Corresponding policy brief: Albinowski, M., Lewandowski, P., Madoń, K., Smoter, M. (2025). Will they quit smoking or switch products? Potential effects of changes to excise duty rates IBS Policy Paper 04/2025