Prevalence and prices of tobacco and nicotine products in Ukraine based on individual survey data

This policy note analyses smoking prevalence and tobacco consumption patterns in Ukraine between 2018 and 2025, based on individual data from the nationally representative Omnibus survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). The study examines the effects of tax reforms (particularly since 2021) and the shock of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 on smoking dynamics, disaggregated by gender, age, region, educational-attainment level, income and occupation.

Results show that after a decade-long decline in smoking prevalence (from about 25-28% in 2010 to 20% in 2017), the war triggered a temporary surge (to 32%) in May 2022, followed by a gradual decrease (to 27%) by late 2024 and a renewed increase (to 31%) in early 2025.

Men continue to smoke two to three times more often than women, yet female daily smoking rates – especially in frontline-adjacent regions – have increased. Younger adults are shifting towards alternative products, such as e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products (HTPs), which together account for 15-20% of the tobacco products in use. Daily smoking is most common among military personnel, manual workers and the self-employed, while respondents with higher educational-attainment levels tend to use cheaper substitutes, including roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco.

Price analysis reveals strong socioeconomic differentiation: higher-income and urban consumers pay more for premium cigarettes and HTPs, while lower-income groups rely on inexpensive RYO products. Half of smokers reported they would quit or reduce consumption if tobacco prices doubled or their income fell by half, indicating substantial price sensitivity and the effectiveness of fiscal measures.

The findings highlight the need to integrate taxation and affordability policies with targeted wartime health interventions, improved monitoring of novel nicotine products, and stronger enforcement against illicit trade.

Keywords: tobacco, smoking, HTP, excise, taxation

JEL classification: H24, I18

Countries covered: Ukraine

Corresponding policy brief, published by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) University and KSE Institute: Tobacco and Nicotine Use: Prevalence, Prices, and the Impact of War in Ukraine